Project Katrina

Via DarkSyde at Daily Kos, which has been providing wonderful coverage throughout:

A catastrophic hurricane is closing in on the fourth largest metro area in the US. The center of Ike is now within 50 miles of the coast. The storm is moving at 10 to 15 mph. Because of the population density and the forward motion of the storm, tiny variations in the track between now and landfall will make an enormous difference in terms of damage. Residents just east of the eye wall are looking straight down the barrel at full throated Category 3 to 4 winds; 120 to 130 mph sustained, gusts could top 150. Hurricane force winds are in effect over one hundred miles away from the storm’s center.

But the story of Ike will be stamped into the geological record by what looks to be a record or near record storm surge. East of the eye, sea levels may rise 20 feet or more above normal. Whipped by winds out of the east, water could rush inland for a mile or more from Galveston Bay, into communities southeast of Houston. The bay coastline from Texas City through Seabrook and La Porte are at extreme surge and flood risk. Large battering waves, perhaps as high as 25 feet in some spots, will race across the top of that turbulent, elevated ocean surface. There are reports that sections of Galveston Island and Port Arthur are now flooded and the water continues to rise. Conditions to the west of the eye are predicted to be roughly half to two-thirds as bad.

[....]

The loss of even a single life is incalculable. But the wind damage from a Cat 3 hurricane, when distributed over an enormous, densely populated area, may well add up to tens of billions of dollars. The region being hardest hit is also home to some of the largest energy production, distribution, and refining facilities in the country. In short, hundreds could die, thousands of homes and smaller buildings might be wrecked, basic utilities will be out of commission for days or weeks, and already sky high fuel prices could soar nationwide.